Mock Draft #1

So, as you all know, I've been working off and on for the past couple of months on this, and here's my first part of my annual mock draft.  I took a lot of things into factor for this, and the grade at the right is still a work in progress as I plug information into my formula's.  More will be delivered daily leading up to the 2014 NFL Draft.

Team	Overall	Round	Pick	Player	Position	Group	School	Conference	Year	Experts	My Grade
Texans	1	1	1	Johnny Manziel	QB	QB	Texas A&M	SEC	rSo	117.50	0.00
Rams (From Redskins)	2	1	2	Jadeveon Clowney	DE	DL	South Carolina	SEC	Jr	110.40	0.00
Jaguars	3	1	3	Blake Bortles	QB	QB	Central Florida	Conference USA	rJr	106.10	0.00
Browns	4	1	4	Teddy Bridgewater	QB	QB	Louisville	Big East	Jr	105.90	0.00
Raiders	5	1	5	Sammy Watkins	WR	WR	Clemson	ACC	Jr	107.40	0.00

An interview with Chris Cordova (Self-Proclaimed Expert)

Chris Cordova of Taos, New Mexico, self proclaimed Cowboys expert, claims that the Dallas Cowboys should stay away from Johnny Manziel, QB from Texas A&M in the 2014 NFL Draft.  His reasons are that Manziel is simply Tony Romo reborn.  Another reason is that with the porous defense we had in 2013 it makes no sense to go after mini-Romo when big-Romo still has at least 3 good seasons left to come.  It would make more sense to draft Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, Aaron Lynch, or Dee Ford, maybe even Jim Jeffcoat's kid Jackson Jeffcoat (I think he's more of a 3rd rounder myself).  Anyway, Cordova went on to tell me that with at least 3 good years left in Romo we could wait until a draft or two from now for a new QB, being that Romo through 15 games was still better than 3/4 of the QB's in the NFL.  Per Jason Witten,  "I have caught a lot of balls over the years and it's the same zip, same as always. He looks good."

Chris makes some valid points, I personally think that if Manziel falls to #16 it's a perfect opportunity to pick up some extra picks in addition to the many we already have this year.  Future picks are a value also and with teams like Jacksonville needing a QB, you never know what will happen this year, if the Jaguars take someone like Khalil Mack with their first and Manziel is there in the middle of the 1st round, Jacksonville may try to trade back in and give up something, say their 2nd round pick and future picks, May 8th can't get here soon enough everyone!

I will have my top 100 players posted by this weekend, definitely before the prime-time event kicks off on the 8th (I have a final project and a few other things for UNM due this weekend which are cutting into my time).  

Don't be surprised if Dallas jumps at a WR in this draft after losing Miles Austin either.  Odell Beckham Jr. and Sammy Watkins have had their names thrown out by Bill Jones and Bryan Broaddus on Talkin' Cowboys.  Here's a link to Bryan's top 50 prospects for this upcoming year for your review in the meantime!

Bryan Broaddus' Top 50

Movie Review - Draft Day

So last night we snuck away and caught the movie "Draft Day" starring Kevin Costner, Jennifer Garner, and a few other guys you'll recognize.  The trailer* is posted below.

I thought the movie overall was very good.  It showed a side of the draft that most fans don't understand is there, the wheeling and dealing or attempts at it that are there but go unseen.  There was something I think they should of included for "accuracy" purposes instead of just here's some picks for your pick.  In the NFL there's a point system, where the 1st pick overall is worth so many points, and each subsequent pick (Click here for the points chart).  Based on the points system Kevin Costner's character probably would have been fired (10,500 points given up to gain 3000, a difference of 7500 points).  That being said, the wheeling and dealing in this was similar to "Moneyball's" trading players scene. 
There was a romance angle in the movie, of course or our wives wouldn't watch it with us.  Jennifer Garner plays the salary cap expert for the Browns and the general conflict resolver to all of Kevin Costner's chaos.  It's an interesting angle as the two have kept their affair a secret that almost everyone knows about and adds to the drama building up to the draft. 
As a Dallas Cowboys fan there were several things I took as inferences about my team.  The most notable was the mockery of Denis Leary's portrayal as the new coach.  The back-story on his character is that he was in Dallas and won a Super Bowl as the head coach, but everyone knows it wasn't his coaching but the team he inherited from the previous coach who also won the Super Bowl (see Barry Switzer and Jimmy Johnson).  Reaching a bit on this next one, but once the assumed first overall pick was passed on for another player, that guy that was supposed to go first overall then starts to fall and other teams become afraid to draft him not knowing what the Browns found on him to not take him first overall.  I've seen this happen in the real draft with several big name prospects and I'm sure there's even more that I don't know about.  Some players I've seen this happen to are Brady Quinn, Tim Tebow, Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers and even Randy Moss (which Dallas passed on for Greg Ellis (a legitimate Pro-Bowler, but come on, Moss deserves to be in the HoF one day)).  Another similarity was the conception that the GM and the coach were not on the same page, see Jerry Jones and Jason Garrett.  Garrett can give input, and I've heard how Jerry takes that input into huge consideration, but at the end of the day Garrett has no say what happens on Draft day or when it comes to trading players etc. 
Last but not least there are some things that I found weird in the movie.  They reference Peyton Manning in one segment (also referencing Joe Montana, Dan Marino, Andrew Luck, Geno Smith, and John Elway to name a few QB's referenced), but then when it's Denver's pick, they made up a fictional name for their QB, like the NFL or NFLPA didn't approve of the movie using current rosters.  In one scene, it shows the fictional QB for the Browns at his locker, and the lockers around his are real Browns players, Alex Mack to his left, etc., but then at the end of the movie when it has the Browns take the field for the 1st game of the next season, every player has a fictional name and none of them match up with those lockers.  Little things I know, but to me it kind of diminished some of the movie. 
Overall though, a great movie, worth the time to see, I wouldn't put it in the Mt. Rushmore of football movies (Varsity Blues, Remember the Titans, The Longest Yard, and Necessary Roughness - my Mt. Rushmore of FB Movies), but overall it was a very entertaining movie with a bunch of draft day plot twists.  I hope you all enjoy it as much as I did.

Quick update

Taking a moment to do a quick update here.  I'm working diligently on over 1000 NFL hopefuls gathering as much data as I can about them.  I will post before the draft my SB picks for this upcoming year, along with predictions for the top 32 picks, and other things leading up to the draft.  I'm gonna get back to work now but I wanted to let everyone know that I am and will be working on the draft from now until the post draft blogs.

2014 NFL Combine

As I sit here watching and tracking my own stats from the Annual NFL Combine (an event that NFL teams use to gauge the athleticism of the upcoming rookie class prior to the NFL Draft), I wanted to make a quick post detailing some of the new things I'm tracking and will post here once the combine is over. 

Speed -

I've taken the best time in the history of the combine since electronic timing was introduced (Chris Johnson ran a 4.24) and use that as the base, then using a mathematical formula the player is then given a rating on a scale of 0-100 (some offensive lineman are below a zero so we'll be nice and bump them to a 0 since we won't rely on them to run 40 yards in an actual game).  Think of this in terms of the Madden games, the higher the rating, the faster the player.  (Reference: http://www.statisticbrain.com/fastest-40-yard-dash-times-in-nfl-history/)


Lbs/Inch -

I've taken the players height and weight into account this year and using a simple formula I can gauge the player's body fat level, similar to BMI, but not going that in depth.  I simply want to see the players weight per their size which I also use in the Strength category this year.

Strength -

Real simple, take the number of reps on the bench press and divide that by the Lbs/Inch and use an additional part of the formula to fix it to a scale similar to the speed. 

I'll post all the results once official 40 times are done posting and so on.  Keep in mind that some players are electing to not work out at the combine and will use their pro day to work out, this by the way I think is complete crap.  I don't mind a player working out on a pro-day and maybe improving their 40 times, etc., but this combine may be the only chance you have to get all 32 teams to look at you and to compare yourself to guys that come from other teams.  To me, as a stats guy, I can only put a non performance in the lazy or cowardice category.  I know this one performance doesn't change how a guys going to do in the pros, but as a GM I'd bump these guys down and promote the ones who took this as a serious job interview and worked out in front of me.  In no other job in our country would you tell a potential employer for them to come see you do your thing because you won't do it in front of them.  The only reason I could excuse someone not working out or doing a drill is due to injury.  I think Pro Days should be like snow make up days in school, only if necessary.  If you do bad at the combine, participate in the pro day, if you are hurt during the combine, participate in the pro day.  I would love to see the NFL put something into effect stopping this crap of I'm better than your combine and afraid I'll have a bad work out in front of all 32 teams.  It's crap and I personally hope these guys don't get drafted and don't make the money they could have had they simply done the damn interview. 

Now that I'm off that soap box, Michael Sam (LB, Missouri, SEC Co-Defensive Player of the Year) has announced prior to the combine that his sexual preference is other men.  That's fine, I'm not one to judge a person's beliefs, I just hope the guys in his future locker room treat him better than the guys that were in the Dolphins locker room this past season.  If somehow he doesn't get drafted in this year's annual event, shame on you NFL and all 32 teams should be held accountable, dock each team a pick in the next year's draft or even fine them all, do something, take away TV revenue from them and put it into a new foundation to help young men and women or something.  We live in the land of the free and home of the brave, it doesn't say anywhere in that decree that it only applies if you're heterosexual.  I'm not going to get into a Biblical debate with anyone on this, as that would be you putting your personal opinion about someone other than yourself and their sexual preference, and just like you would want to be entitled to that opinion, Michael Sam is entitled to his.  Like he said in his press conference yesterday, I just hope everyone judges him as a football player, not as anything else.

Jadeveon Clowney is overrated, saying it here first like when I called the Super Bowl at this time last year.  I'm not saying he's an NFL bust, but to say he's got more upside than Mario Williams had is just insane.  I remember everyone thinking the Texans were crazy to get Williams with the #1 pick the year he came out, and now you're wanting them to do that again with Clowney, who to his credit is a mediocre player with an OK work ethic.  His press conference even came off as arrogant and cocky, telling someone that if they wanted to see his work ethic to just put on tape from last year.  That's not work ethic, that's game time work ethic which still wasn't that impressive considering his numbers were not huge.  Yeah, he had a few tackles for loss and a few sacks, but the bottom line is that when it came to a big time game, he was nowhere to be found.  When he was against SEC offensive lineman, again, nowhere to be found.  And last but not least, you take away his one big hit highlight reel from 2 years ago and NOBODY would be talking about this guy.  Granted it was a hell of a play but it's not like he went out and did it ever again.  Hell if everyone judged Romo off of one good play he made a few years ago and ignored the mediocrity that makes up about half-3/4 of Romo's play, he'd be in the same league as Brady and Manning.  Put that in perspective. 

That's all for now, enjoy the combine and I'll check back in a while.